Major liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects across Africa are accelerating development, poised to capitalize on a tightening global supply outlook following a significant downward revision by the International Energy Agency (IEA) for projected growth to 2030. This renewed momentum positions African producers to meet escalating demand, particularly from Asian markets facing a smaller pool of available cargoes.
The confluence of geopolitical disruptions, notably the Middle East conflict impacting Qatari liquefaction infrastructure, and robust Asian demand has fundamentally shifted the market dynamics for African LNG. Projects previously facing competition concerns are now strategically vital, attracting renewed investment and pushing forward final investment decisions to secure future supply.
Executive Summary
African LNG developments are gaining significant traction, with Mozambique, Nigeria, and Tanzania leading the charge to bring substantial new capacity online. TotalEnergies has fully restarted its Mozambique LNG project, targeting first cargoes by 2029, while Eni's Coral Norte development aims to double existing output by 2028. Nigeria's UTM Floating LNG also secured a crucial gas supply agreement, underscoring the continent's growing role in global gas markets.
What Happened
TotalEnergies announced the full restart of its Mozambique LNG project on January 29, four years after force majeure, with first cargoes anticipated in 2029. Concurrently, Eni approved the $7.2 billion Coral Norte development in Mozambique, expected to double the output of its Coral Sul facility by 2028. In Nigeria, UTM Floating LNG signed a 15-year wet gas agreement on July 8 with the NNPC and Seplat joint venture, preceding an expected Final Investment Decision in Q4 2026.
Key Developments
- Mozambique LNG Resumes: TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG project, with a revised budget of $20.5 billion, is now 40% complete and expects first LNG cargoes by 2029.
- Eni Expands Coral: Eni's $7.2 billion Coral Norte development in Mozambique received approval, aiming to double the 3.4 million tonnes per year capacity of Coral Sul by 2028.
- Nigeria FLNG Progresses: UTM Floating LNG in Nigeria secured a 15-year wet gas agreement, advancing its indigenous floating LNG project towards a Q4 2026 Final Investment Decision.
Regional Context
The acceleration of these African LNG projects is occurring against a backdrop of increased global energy insecurity, particularly in Europe, which is seeking diversified gas supplies. African nations are leveraging their vast natural gas reserves to become critical players in the international LNG trade, enhancing their economic resilience and geopolitical standing.
Market Impact
The IEA's reduction of global LNG supply growth by 120 billion cubic meters between 2026 and 2030, largely due to Middle East disruptions, has created a significant market opportunity for African producers. This shift is driving up LNG prices and intensifying competition among Asian buyers, making African projects more attractive for investment and accelerating their development timelines.
Outlook
Further final investment decisions are anticipated across the continent, particularly for projects like ExxonMobil's Rovuma in Mozambique and Tanzania's Likong'o-Mchinga, as global demand for reliable LNG supply continues to outstrip revised projections. The coming years will see Africa solidify its position as a pivotal source of global LNG.
