The United States is poised to achieve a new record in marketed natural gas production in 2026, with output forecast to average 122.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), surpassing the previous year's high. This surge is primarily attributed to robust activity in the Permian and Haynesville shale regions, reinforcing the nation's position as a dominant global gas supplier.
This projected increase in US natural gas supply is critical for global energy markets, particularly as geopolitical tensions continue to influence commodity flows. The sustained growth underscores the resilience and efficiency of American shale operations, providing a stable supply source amidst fluctuating international dynamics and supporting expanding liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity.
Executive Summary
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts a 3.4% rise in marketed natural gas production to 122.5 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 118.5 Bcf/d in 2025. This expansion is largely concentrated in the Permian Basin, where associated gas production is bolstered by higher crude oil prices, and the Haynesville region, which responds directly to Henry Hub natural gas prices. The sustained growth highlights the ongoing productivity gains in US shale plays and their increasing importance in balancing global energy supply.
What Happened
The EIA's August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on August 12, 2026, projected that U.S. marketed natural gas production would reach a record 122.5 Bcf/d in 2026. This forecast indicates a 4 Bcf/d increase over 2025 levels, with significant contributions from the Permian and Haynesville regions. Production in the first half of 2026 already averaged 121.3 Bcf/d, a 4% rise from the same period in 2025.
Key Developments
- Record Gas Output: U.S. marketed natural gas production is forecast to hit a record 122.5 Bcf/d in 2026, exceeding 2025 levels by 3.4%.
- Permian Drives Growth: Permian Basin gas production is expected to average 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, a 6% increase, primarily from associated gas tied to crude oil extraction.
- Haynesville Responds to Henry Hub: Haynesville natural gas output is projected to rise 9% in 2026, with drilling economics directly influenced by Henry Hub benchmark prices.
- Crude Price Support: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices averaged $84/barrel through July 2026, well above Permian breakeven costs, supporting oil-directed drilling and associated gas.
Regional Context
This robust growth in U.S. natural gas production solidifies the nation's role as the world's largest natural gas producer, reinforcing the Americas' overall energy supply strength. The expansion, particularly from shale plays, underscores the region's increasing influence on global energy balances.
Market Impact
For traders and analysts, the sustained increase in U.S. natural gas supply signals continued robust availability, potentially influencing Henry Hub prices and supporting expanding LNG export capacity. The strong associated gas output from the Permian, driven by elevated crude prices, provides a stable feedstock for these exports, impacting global gas balances and pricing.
Outlook
The trajectory for U.S. natural gas production remains upward, with further growth anticipated beyond 2026, contingent on sustained crude oil prices and robust demand for LNG exports. Future developments will hinge on infrastructure expansion and the ongoing interplay between oil and gas market fundamentals.
